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Bond investors are gaining confidence that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will unwind the central bank’s unprecedented $3.3 trillion balance sheet without sparking a crash similar to 1994, when Alan Greenspan surprised the market by doubling benchmark lending rates in 12 months.
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Volatility in the $11.4 trillion U.S. Treasury market dropped to a record low as the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented bond-buying program damps price swings in the world’s biggest securities market.
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Wall Street’s biggest bond dealers see little chance the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of debt purchases designed to boost economic growth before the fourth quarter, even as policy makers face calls to curb the buying.
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David Stockman’s warning that the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing is steering the world’s largest economy toward a crash is at odds with nine quarters of job growth, record stock prices and unprecedented corporate earnings, former fiscal and monetary policy makers said.
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Fresh from a budget fight so raw that the Republican speaker of the U.S. House cursed the Democratic leader of the Senate outside the Oval Office, President Barack Obama and Congress are heading for an even bigger confrontation over raising the nation’s debt limit.
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The sudden slowdown in U.S. inflation has left Treasuries at the cheapest levels in almost two years, aiding the Federal Reserve’s efforts to tamp down long-term borrowing costs while the economy improves.
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The slide in U.S. home prices may have another three years to go as sellers add as many as 12 million more properties to the market.
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The U.S. trade deficit probably widened in August as imports stabilized following their biggest drop in more than a year, pointing to an economy struggling to regain momentum, economists said before a report today.
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Prices of goods imported into the U.S. fell in May, led by the biggest drop in petroleum costs since December 2008.
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As President Barack Obama starts his second term, the bond market is already telling him that the administration’s forecasts for economic growth over the next four years are too optimistic.
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