Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.’s William O’Donnell, head of the lender’s U.S. treasury strategy, said he sees a 60 percent chance that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting its $85 billion monetary stimulus plan in March.
U.S. government debt is becoming increasingly perilous to options traders who are pushing up the cost to protect against sudden losses by the most in a year, even as Federal Reserve stimulus suppresses volatility.
The Federal Reserve may have understated the staying power of negative effects on U.S. economic growth, according to William O’Donnell, head U.S. government bond strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.
Treasuries maturing in 3 1/2 to 4 years represent the “sweet spot” in the government bond market because they offer relatively attractive yields and greater protection than longer-maturity debt as yields fluctuate, according to RBS Securities Inc.’s William O’Donnell .
Investors should heed the views of the Federal Reserve on the state of the economy and the need for more debt purchases because “so far they have been right,” according to William O’Donnell of Royal Bank of Scotland Plc.
China, the largest foreign lender to America, increased its holdings of Treasuries in July as speculation the Federal Reserve will slow purchases pushed U.S. bond yields to the highest level in two years.