Russia will probably avoid turning off the natural gas taps to Europe or Ukraine as its economy approaches a recession, according to Neil Shearing, head of emerging-markets research at London-based Capital Economics.
Russian capital outflows in the first quarter were the largest since the last three months of 2008 when the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. triggered the biggest credit squeeze since the Great Depression.
The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for Russia’s economy, citing the standoff with the U.S. and Europe over Ukraine, as the government in Moscow warned this year’s growth may slow to the least since a 2009 recession.
Emerging-market stocks rose, following the longest weekly rally in a month, as state- controlled oil producer Petroleo Brasileiro SA led Brazil’s Ibovespa to the biggest gain among world equity indexes.
Russian equities will extend their biggest decline in two weeks on concern the U.S. and Europe will impose more sanctions amid escalating tensions in Ukraine, Bank of America Corp. and OAO Sberbank said.