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From Mexico to Poland, bond investors are lowering their outlook for inflation in developing markets to a nine-month low, giving central bankers room to cut interest rates and boost their economies.
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BTA Bank , the largest Kazakh lender before its default last year, made amendments to its restructuring plan that are “good news” for its creditors, according to Paul McNamara of Augustus Asset Managers.
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Paul McNamara is piling into Argentina’s inflation-linked bonds three years after calling them the “single worst long-term asset” in emerging markets.
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Bond yields in emerging markets are falling to record lows as inflation tumbles compared with benchmark interest rates, providing policy makers with more opportunities to lower borrowing costs.
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Argentine peso bond returns are beating the country’s dollar-denominated debt for the longest stretch since October 2008 as investors bet the currency will weaken less than economists expect.
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Russia’s plan to lure international investors to ruble securities through its first overseas sale of local-currency debt may reduce borrowing costs as bondholders snap up emerging-market securities.
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Polish monetary-policy makers unexpectedly raised borrowing costs as inflation continues to exceed the central bank’s target and the European Union’s biggest eastern economy slows less than they had forecast.
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Bondholders are losing confidence in central bank Governor Erdem Basci’s ability to meet his target of cutting the highest inflation rate among major economies in half.
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Russia’s $59 billion asset sale program is stoking the biggest rally in VTB Group bonds since July and sending OAO Sberbank yields to record lows on speculation disclosure will improve with less state control.
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Dollar bonds of Latin American nations from Panama to Uruguay provided the best returns in emerging markets this year, a rally that may extend into 2012 as lower debt and higher foreign reserves limit the effects of the European debt crisis.
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