Marco Valli News
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German investor confidence rose less than economists forecast in May, highlighting the risks to the economic outlook as the euro region remains mired in recession.
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German exports rose in March, adding to signs that Europe’s largest economy is starting to recover from a contraction at the end of last year.
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The European Central Bank will refrain from cutting its interest rate again until at least 2015, according to economists surveyed since President Mario Draghi’s pledge last week to deliver another reduction if needed.
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The European Central Bank left interest rates on hold as it gauges how big a threat Italy poses to the economic recovery.
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The euro-area economy will shrink in back-to-back years for the first time, driving unemployment higher as governments, consumers and companies curb spending, the European Commission said.
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Euro-area jobless data this week will expose the social cost of last year’s debt crisis and recession on southern European economies as unemployment across the region probably rose to a record in December.
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Euro-area economic growth in 2011 will slow “modestly” because of tightening fiscal policies, before improving next year on a recovery in investments and consumption, UniCredit SpA economists said.
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The European Central Bank kept interest rates on hold as improving economic sentiment underpinned expectations of a gradual recovery this year.
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The European Central Bank’s plan to step up dollar lending to the region’s banks is only a temporary solution to easing funding needs and solving the region’s debt crisis, said Marco Valli, chief euro-area economist at UniCredit Group in Milan.
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When Jean-Claude Trichet retires on Oct. 31, the euro area may lose more than just a European Central Bank president.
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