The thing about a recession is that you typically don’t know you’re in one until it’s been around for a while. Broadly defined, an economy is in recession not just when it’s operating below capacity, but when it’s outright shrinking. Exactly what constitutes that shrinkage, though, can be fuzzy. The most cited rule of thumb, two consecutive quarters of declining output, doesn’t always apply. Gross domestic product is often positive when a recession starts. That’s why recoveries sometimes don’t feel much different than recessions.
The biggest slump in commodities since Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. collapsed is undermining Wall Street forecasts for accelerating economic growth and higher prices for everything from copper to crude oil.
Unemployment won’t ease to 4.5 or 5 percent for 10 years, according to Lakshman Achuthan , managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute, and James Glassman , senior economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Nov. 29 (Bloomberg) -- In today's "Single Best Chart," ECRL co-founder and COO Lakshman Achuthan displays economic indicators he believes to show that the United States in currently in recession. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's "Bloomberg Surveillance."