Turkey’s widening current-account deficit and record low yields will weaken the lira over the next three months, slamming the brakes on this year’s bond rally, according to Barclays Plc, the top forecaster for the currency.
Emerging-market stocks fell the most in a week, led by Chinese equities, on concern regulators may depress valuations by resuming initial share sales. South Africa’s rand slid to an almost four-year low versus the dollar.
The rand slid for a fourth day to the lowest in four weeks as Fitch Ratings followed Standard & Poor’s and Moody’s Investors Service in cutting South Africa’s debt rating amid concern over the economy.
Hungary’s forint, the worst performing emerging-market currency in the past year, will probably rally in 2011 as the government seeks to use private pension fund assets to plug its budget shortfall, according to KBC Groep NV, Barclays Capital and UniCredit SpA.
The zloty fell to the weakest level in five months as investors expect gross domestic product data set to be published tomorrow will confirm the economy is slowing, bolstering the case for further interest rate cuts.
The world’s best bond and currency rally risks reversing as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stalls on conditions for a bailout, according to BlackRock Inc., Citigroup Inc. and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc.