Ivan Tchakarov News
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Russia will probably refrain from lowering interest rates this month as faster inflation deflects the central bank’s attention from the flagging economy.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin urged the government to come up with a plan to revive the flagging economy after a minister warned that a recession is possible as companies cut investment and export demand wanes.
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Ivan Tchakarov, chief economist at Renaissance Capital in Moscow, comments on how U.S. debt talks may affect emerging markets. He spoke by telephone from the Russian capital today.
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Kazakhstan’s tenge climbed to a two- year high against the dollar as the central bank eases control of the currency and crude prices at the most in 30 months lure investors to Central Asia’s biggest oil producer.
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Ukraine is unlikely to get more money from the International Monetary Fund as part of a $15.6 billion bailout program before parliamentary elections next year, Renaissance Capital said.
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An acceleration in Ukraine’s economic growth may help the government avoid a third International Monetary Fund bailout, Renaissance Capital said.
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Russia’s drought, which is cutting grain yields, may increase food prices and push inflation above the central bank target of 6 percent this year, according to Renaissance Capital.
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A worsening global outlook may pressure Russia to cut interest rates by half a percentage point this year to shield the economy, Renaissance Capital said.
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The ruble rebounded from its weakest level in almost a month against the dollar as rising oil prices spurred traders to buy the currency at cheaper levels.
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Russia’s economy grew slower than analysts forecast last year, expanding at the weakest pace since a 2009 contraction after record oil prices failed to offset $56.8 billion of net capital outflows and investment sagged.
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