Hungary will probably leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged today for a fifth month as the government’s commitment to fiscal rigor helped curbed risk costs, reducing the likelihood of a rate hike.
Hungary must cut spending because a plan to impose temporary taxes and retain pension-fund savings will fail to control the fiscal deficit from 2013 and risk long- term funding, Morgan Stanley and UniCredit SpA said.
The best emerging-market bond rally has further to run as Hungary’s central bank extends interest rate cuts and limits unconventional stimulus measures, according to Pioneer Investments and Erste Sparinvest KAG.
The Turkish lira, which trailed emerging market currencies from the Brazilian real to the Russian ruble last year, is attracting bullish recommendations after first-quarter economic growth approached that of China.
Romania needs its Dec. 9 election to end a political war that has split the nation’s leaders or face a slide in the currency, bonds and investments, said executives and analysts from Bucharest to London.