Gyula Toth News
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Romania needs its Dec. 9 election to end a political war that has split the nation’s leaders or face a slide in the currency, bonds and investments, said executives and analysts from Bucharest to London.
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Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban is pushing back as investors and European officials renew their drive to force him to relax his hold on power in return for financial aid.
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Investors should unwind bets on a forint drop against the euro, UniCredit SpA said in an e-mail today.
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The forint retreated from the strongest in seven weeks and Hungarian bonds slumped after Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government said it will increase taxes on financial services to curb the nation’s budget deficit.
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Hungary will probably leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged today for a fifth month as the government’s commitment to fiscal rigor helped curbed risk costs, reducing the likelihood of a rate hike.
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Hungary must cut spending because a plan to impose temporary taxes and retain pension-fund savings will fail to control the fiscal deficit from 2013 and risk long- term funding, Morgan Stanley and UniCredit SpA said.
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Hungary needs and will obtain a credit line from the International Monetary Fund even as the government opposes the conditions currently demanded for the aid, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said.
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Hungary’s forint-denominated bonds may weaken on concern the government will struggle to restart talks on an international bailout, according to UniCredit SpA.
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The Turkish lira, which trailed emerging market currencies from the Brazilian real to the Russian ruble last year, is attracting bullish recommendations after first-quarter economic growth approached that of China.
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Mario Draghi is buying Poland’s Central Bank Governor Marek Belka time to weigh whether he needs to cut interest rates to counter the economic fallout from the euro region debt crisis.
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