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The European Union’s largest wheat crop in five years probably will send Paris futures into a bear market even as excess rain threatens to curb yields in the U.K. and northern France.
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Soybeans fell in Chicago, extending the biggest drop in almost three months and leading farm commodities lower after the U.S. government raised its outlook for world inventories of the oilseed.
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U.S. farmers, the biggest wheat shippers, are poised to lose their advantage over French growers in export markets after the worst Midwest drought in more than a decade wilted grain crops and drove prices to a 10-month high.
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French wheat costs are near their highest in three years compared with U.S. grain and the premium is likely to rise as record food prices stoke demand from governments in North Africa seeking to end growing protests.
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Paris wheat futures may halt a two- week decline at a level of 245 euros ($324) a metric ton after falling below a support level of 255 euros three days ago, according to technical analysis by Cedric Weber, an analyst at France’s Offre & Demande Agricole.
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Wheat rose for a second day in Chicago on speculation dry weather may have hurt crops in France, Germany and the U.K., the largest European producers. Corn and soybeans gained amid planting delays in the U.S.
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Russia will have little grain left to export in November and wheat prices already reflect the lack of supply, according to Alexandre Marie, a wheat analyst at Bourges, France-based farm adviser Offre & Demande Agricole.
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Wheat fell below $8 a bushel for the first time since July 3 in Chicago amid concerns of a lack of export demand and as snow in the central U.S. and a jump in German plantings boosted the outlook for production next year.
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Wheat rose in Paris as commodities gained amid speculation demand will improve after U.S. lawmakers reached an accord to avert the so-called fiscal cliff of spending cuts and tax increases.
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Heat waves in southern Europe are withering the corn crop and reducing yields in a region that accounts for 16 percent of global exports at a time when U.S. drought already drove prices to a record.