David Hauner News
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Investors should buy Russian and Hungarian bonds denominated in local currencies and sell Polish debt as yields are set to decline further because of interest- rate reductions, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said.
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Bank of America Merrill Lynch said investors should buy emerging market bonds and equities as the so-called BRIC nations of Brazil, Russia, India and China post the biggest improvement in growth this year.
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The ruble will climb 1.5 percent against the central bank’s target euro-dollar basket by the end of next year as global growth concerns recede and Bank Rossii stops buying and selling currency to manage the exchange rate, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
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Russia’s central bank will cut its main policy rate twice this year, reversing increases of borrowing costs in 2011, Bank of America Corp. said.
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Polish bonds beat German bunds and U.S. Treasuries in risk-adjusted returns since Europe’s debt crisis started three years ago, indicating the country that restructured a $35 billion debt load two decades ago is becoming a regional haven.
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Economic growth in Russia and Poland will slow in the coming quarters as euro-area banks cut lending to meet stricter capital requirements, Bank of America Corp. said.
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The pace of bond sales by junk-rated emerging-market companies is poised to slow from record issuance in the second quarter as concern that the global recovery is faltering sends yields to the highest this year.
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Emerging-market stocks tumbled the most in seven weeks, currencies weakened and borrowing costs rose as Europe’s debt crisis worsened.
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Israeli consumer protests have helped slow inflation, giving Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer room for further reductions in the benchmark interest rate.
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The Bank of Israel “has room to ease policy considerably going forward” based on inflation expectations, David Hauner head of Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa economics at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in London, wrote in a report today.
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