David Brownlee News
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As President Barack Obama starts his second term, the bond market is already telling him that the administration’s forecasts for economic growth over the next four years are too optimistic.
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As investors sought a refuge from inflation in August amid concern about Federal Reserve efforts to prop up the U.S. economy, David Brownlee was buying the securities most vulnerable to rising consumer prices.
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The risk of owning U.S. government debt is as great as any time since the 1950s with yields at the year’s lows and Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner locking in borrowing costs by selling longer-term securities.
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Treasuries gained for a second week as reports that showed consumer prices excluding food and fuel were unchanged and jobless claims unexpectedly rose spurred speculation the Federal Reserve will keep rates low.
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Bond investors are looking back to the last time a Democratic president lost control of Congress and concluding, like then, that gridlock in Washington is good news for Treasuries .
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Treasuries rose for the first time in six days as a collapse in China’s export growth added to signs the global economy is weakening and pushed investors toward safer assets.
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The Federal Reserve will remain the biggest buyer of Treasuries, even after the second round of quantitative easing ends this week, as the central bank uses its $2.86 trillion balance sheet to keep interest rates low.
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Treasuries rallied the most this year after Standard & Poor’s cut Greece’s credit ratings to junk, bolstering demand for the safest government securities.
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