Clemens Grafe News
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Russia’s economy probably grew at the weakest pace since 2009 in the first quarter as investment at companies including OAO Gazprom cooled and the euro area’s longest recession hurt demand for commodity exports.
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Goldman Sachs Group Inc. has hired Clemens Grafe as its chief Russia economist, according to two people with knowledge of the move.
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Russia, the largest emerging economy to raise interest rates this year, will probably refrain from increasing borrowing costs today after inflation unexpectedly slowed in October for the first time in six months.
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Investors are buying record amounts of notes paying returns based on ruble bonds as Russia prepares to open the market to foreigners, triggering inflows Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates may reach $30 billion.
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Russian banks, the largest owners of domestic corporate bonds, are reducing holdings for the first time since 2008 to finance increased lending.
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Russia’s ruble is posting the widest swings in three months as the economic rebound from last year’s record contraction spurs the central bank to move closer to letting the currency float.
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Russia’s central bank may let the ruble strengthen more than the government wants as it balances a free float target with legislative demands for a managed currency, UBS AG and Commerzbank AG said.
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Russia will balance its budge t next year, four years earlier than the government estimates, and post a surplus in 2012 as oil prices “move sharply higher,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
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Russia’s government is tightening its grip on capital markets by expanding the investment-banking arms of two state-run lenders at the expense of Western firms.
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Russian bonds are trailing emerging- market debt for a seventh straight month, sending Prime Minister Vladimir Putin ’s borrowing-cost advantage to near the lowest since October as falling oil prices curb economic growth.
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