Russia’s $40 billion gas-subsidy deal with Ukraine and a new 25-year lease for a Russian navy base may put paid to Ukraine’s NATO ambitions and lay the country open to Russian companies, analysts said.
Russia justified its intervention in the Crimea as a legitimate response to a request from Ukraine’s ousted president amid threats posed by extremists, while Western leaders sought to keep the standoff from spiraling into war.
Credit Suisse Group AG sees Ukraine falling into “sovereign limbo” as Crimea effectively becomes part of Russia, said Robert Parker, the Swiss bank’s senior adviser on investment, research and strategy.
Ukraine’s state energy company NAK Naftogaz Ukrainy, which has been forced to reschedule some of its debts, will be profitable next year after Russia agreed to reduce natural gas prices, President Viktor Yanukovych said.
President Dmitry Medvedev awarded Ukraine $40 billion in natural-gas subsidies in return for a new lease on the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s naval base as the Kremlin strengthens ties with its neighbor after five years of tension.
Russia said Ukraine’s natural gas debt climbed to almost $2 billion and signaled supplies may be cut, ratcheting up pressure on its neighbor as they scrap over the future of the Black Sea Crimea region.