Palm oil will drop “significantly” in the fourth quarter as output from new trees in Indonesia, the biggest grower, surpasses estimates and buyers switch to soybean oil, DBS Vickers Securities (Singapore) Pte. said.
Palm oil probably will drop this year after Asian producers boosted acreage and global oilseed supplies rose, said Dorab Mistry, a Godrej International Ltd. director who’s traded the commodity for more than 30 years. Prices fell, erasing this year’s gain.
Palm oil stockpiles in Malaysia, which held near a record in January, probably shrank by the most in 10 months in February as output declined in the second- largest supplier, according to a Bloomberg survey.
India, the world’s biggest cooking oil consumer after China, will tax crude palm oil imports for the first time since 2008 after a slump in prices spurred record shipments, hurting domestic oilseed growers.
Dorab Mistry compared the palm-oil market in 1998 to the Titanic and correctly predicted a slump from then-record prices the next year. He’s now forecasting another retreat as weakening demand outweighs a decline in Malaysian production.
Wilmar International Ltd., the world’s biggest palm-oil processing company, fell the most in Singapore trading in more than three years after reporting quarterly profit that missed analysts’ estimates.
Palm-oil production in Malaysia, the second-biggest supplier after Indonesia, probably gained the most in seven months in April, after recovering from seasonally low-output months, according to a Bloomberg survey.