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Traders are increasing bets that Colombia will reduce interest rates this month to the lowest in Latin America, after some policy makers voted for bigger cuts in December and the inflation rate fell to a two-year low.
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Colombia’s peso bond yields fell to a three-week low before the central bank unexpectedly cut borrowing costs, citing slowing growth in the Andean country.
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Colombia’s peso fell for a fifth day after the central bank said it will extend its daily dollar purchases in the local market for at least three more months.
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Growing bets Colombia will miss its inflation target for the first time since 2008 are a signal to Citigroup Inc. and Corp. Financiera Colombiana SA that traders are overestimating how much floods will push up food prices.
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Colombian companies are borrowing the most money overseas in at least 12 years, spurring speculation that policy makers will rein in the credit boom as part of an effort to stem the peso’s rally.
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Colombia’s peso bonds dropped, pushing yields to their highest level this month, on speculation the government may issue more local debt to finance increased spending after higher-than-average rainfall left thousands homeless and destroyed roads in the South American country.
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Betting on gains in the Colombian peso has proven to be the most profitable risk-adjusted trade in the foreign-exchange market this year as policy makers raise interest rates to keep inflation in check.
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Colombia may pare next year’s local bond auction plan as quickening economic growth bolsters tax revenue and reduces the government’s financing needs, said Public Credit Director German Arce.
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Colombia’s central bank raised borrowing costs for a second straight month in a bid to stabilize the fastest economic growth since 2006 and slow inflation toward the mid-point of policy makers’ target amid a surge in lending.
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Colombia’s peso bond yields extended their increase from a record low as legislation that would reduce taxes foreigners pay on fixed-income investments awaited approval by Congress.