Alexandre Schwartsman News
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Brazil’s central bank will raise interest rates today for the first time in almost two years, economists forecast, after inflation accelerated to a pace that threatens the economy’s fragile recovery.
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Brazil is likely to keep its key interest rate at a record low for the third straight meeting, as policy makers are caught between a fragile economic recovery and faster-than-expected inflation.
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Brazil’s inflation may surpass the upper range of the country’s target this year because of “inconsistencies” between monetary and currency policies, said Banco Santander SA’s chief economist in the country.
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Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega said the government will cut spending by 10 billion reais ($5.7 billion) to cool the economy before the effect of interest rate increases can take hold.
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Luciano Coutinho oversaw a surge in lending as president of Brazil’s development bank that increased the country’s debt during the global financial crisis. Now he may need to help Dilma Rousseff restrain government spending when she becomes president.
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Brazilian central bank board member Carlos Hamilton so disagreed with a surprise interest-rate cut in August that he slammed phones and stomped through hallways, according to three bank officials familiar with his reaction.
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Brazil’s efforts to boost economic growth with the most aggressive interest rate cuts are driving away investors, reducing equity valuations to five-year lows and fueling the world’s biggest currency tumble.
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Brazil’s state development bank is charging the least relative to the country’s benchmark interest rate in 18 months, a sign President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ’s successor may struggle to keep inflation in check.
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Brazil’s consumer prices rose in January at the fastest pace since 2005, fueled by food prices and an increase in bus fares at the start of the year.
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Brazil’s central bank estimates that an increase this month in reserve and capital requirements is equivalent to lifting the benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage point to a full point, said a person familiar with the bank’s decision-making process.
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