From the window of his construction trailer, Murat Sarayli has a prime vantage point on the promise and perils of the Turkish economy. Outside, sparks cascade from welding torches as workers labor to complete the steel skeleton of a $350 million hotel and conference center. Jets pass overhead, approaching and leaving Istanbul Ataturk Airport, less than a mile away.
The biggest drop in Turkish bond yields in more than three weeks is signaling investors see the central bank gearing up for interest-rate cuts, with economists debating when, not whether, they will occur.
The threat of Turkey’s debt being returned to junk by Moody’s Investors Service risks arresting a 2 1/2-month rally by the lira, countering the improvement in the nation’s current-account deficit amid a pick-up in exports.
Turkey’s benchmark yields climbed for the first time in five days and the lira depreciated against the dollar as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said pressure on the economy may continue given the nation’s external imbalances.
The shekel may advance 12 percent against the dollar in the next year as Israel’s economy expands and the dollar weakens as the Federal Reserve steps up asset purchases, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said. Bonds dropped.
Turkish lender Yapi & Kredi Bankasi AS says companies would struggle to repay foreign-currency debt were the lira to depreciate at least 20 percent, a level Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts it will approach next year.
Hungary is eastern Europe’s “most puzzling investment case” with assets trading at the biggest discount to fair value in the region because of the government’s economic policies, economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.