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Turkey paid its last loan installment to the International Monetary Fund after a 52-year relationship, a triumph for Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan as government debt falls even as private borrowing surges.
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Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s non- consensus call that Turkey’s central bank would act to stem capital inflows at the risk of higher loan growth was vindicated as the bank cut interest rates today.
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Economists are split on whether Turkish monetary policy is looser or tighter after central bank Governor Erdem Basci cut one of his three interest rates while saying he’d use an experimental tool to manage liquidity.
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The shekel may advance 12 percent against the dollar in the next year as Israel’s economy expands and the dollar weakens as the Federal Reserve steps up asset purchases, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said. Bonds dropped.
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Turkey’s bond yields fell to the lowest level in more than a month and the lira weakened as a cut in the central bank’s overnight interest rates yesterday fueled demand for short-maturity local currency debt.
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The cost of insuring Turkish debt against currency losses is rising as global banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc., HSBC Holdings Plc and Credit Agricole SA predict policy makers will act to reverse lira gains.
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Turkey’s dollar bonds are poised for their best month in 1 1/2 years as slowing economic growth spurs speculation demand for imported goods will ease, narrowing the country’s record current-account deficit.
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The lira weakened for the first time in four days as investors avoided risky assets before a gathering of European leaders to secure a deal over the Greek debt writeoff.
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Hungary is eastern Europe’s “most puzzling investment case” with assets trading at the biggest discount to fair value in the region because of the government’s economic policies, economists at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
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The rebound in the world’s worst- performing currency is diminishing the likelihood that Turkey’s central bank will raise interest rates to stem the highest inflation in 19 major emerging markets, trading in the swaps market shows.
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